The recent two-day youth protests in Nepal led to the ousting of former Prime Minister KP Oli. The political upheaval in Nepal has significant ramifications across Asia, given Oli’s close relationship with China.
His removal is viewed as a strategic play by the United States, designed to weaken China’s influence. Nepal has a history of navigating relations between India and China. However, under Oli’s leadership, the nation’s ties with China strengthened. He actively promoted Beijing’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative,’ even participating in a Chinese Victory Day parade, which was met with concern in the US.
The United States reportedly revived the Millennium Challenge Compact (MCC) in Nepal this year. This project, with approximately $500 million in funding, focuses on improving energy and road infrastructure. It is viewed as a direct competitor to China’s ‘Belt and Road.’ Consequently, analysts suggest a potential US involvement in the discontent and protests that led to Oli’s downfall.
With Oli gone, Sushila Karki has stepped in as interim Prime Minister. Karki maintains strong ties with India, having studied at Banaras Hindu University and expressed gratitude to PM Modi. This indicates a shift in Nepal’s foreign policy, with a move away from China and towards closer relations with India and the United States.
While India and the United States experienced trade disputes a few years ago, the relationship is now improving. Discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US officials are increasing. A US delegation is expected to visit India soon, possibly including a deal for -8I aircraft. Clearer tariff policies could further enhance relations. This situation puts pressure on China, as India is the only nation in Asia that can potentially challenge China’s influence. The United States understands this and is actively working to strengthen ties with the Modi government.
Pakistan has been a long-standing ally of China, receiving economic and defense aid. However, Pakistan’s internal challenges have altered the dynamics. US President Donald Trump, during his second term, appears to be making overtures towards Pakistan. The Pakistani Army Chief recently dined with the US President at the White House. This is a significant indication of a US effort to sway China’s key ally.
