The leadership question in Bihar, specifically whether Nitish Kumar will continue as Chief Minister, is set to be resolved on November 14. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks about the legislative party’s decision post-elections have sparked intense speculation about the BJP possibly vying for the CM’s position should the NDA emerge victorious. However, political analysts suggest that such a power shift is unlikely due to several strategic factors.
A significant portion of the electoral battleground in Bihar revolves around direct confrontations between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD. The JD(U) is contesting 101 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan, including RJD, Congress, VIP, and Left parties, is fielding candidates in 96. Crucially, 59 of these seats are direct contests between the JD(U) and RJD, expanding to 71 with Left party participation. These constituencies are pivotal as they are less inclined towards the BJP, reflecting a traditional political approach in Bihar designed to limit the BJP’s assertiveness.
In the 2020 elections, the RJD demonstrated a strong performance in these 71 direct contests, winning 48 seats against the JD(U) with a 67.6% strike rate. The Mahagathbandhan narrowly missed forming the government. The JD(U) struggled in these direct matchups, winning only 21 seats. The impact of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha running independently in 2020 cannot be understated, as they contributed to JD(U) losing 13 seats in these key contests. Their current alliance with the NDA is expected to swing these seats back.
The re-integration of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha into the NDA is anticipated to consolidate key voter blocs, including Dalit and Koeri communities, potentially bolstering the JD(U)’s seat tally. In the previous election, Chirag Paswan’s separate campaign significantly impacted the NDA, causing the JD(U) to lose 36 seats. Upendra Kushwaha’s independent run also cost the JD(U) five seats. Their return to the NDA could prove beneficial for the JD(U) in these specific constituencies.
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) will contest 29 seats, with a substantial number of these being seats where the NDA had previously lost. Thirteen of these have been unwinnable for the NDA over the last three election cycles. Despite the political maneuvering, prevailing expert opinions suggest that the BJP is unlikely to successfully sideline Nitish Kumar. Furthermore, any attempt to do so might compel Nitish Kumar to seek an alliance with the RJD, drastically altering the political dynamics in Bihar.
