The political arena in Bihar is heavily influenced by deep-rooted caste equations, setting its elections apart from those in many other states. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has voiced expectations of a significant victory for the NDA, predicting the RJD and Congress will achieve their lowest seat counts to date. He has directly confronted Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, characterizing them as ‘princes on bail’ and alleging they are making false promises and mocking the religious practices of women observing Chhath Puja.
In a demonstration of support, Rabri Devi, a former Chief Minister and wife of RJD stalwart Lalu Prasad, was seen campaigning for her son Tejashwi Yadav in the Raghopur constituency. The RJD party has experienced internal dissent, with Tej Pratap Yadav reportedly facing opposition from party supporters. Violence has also marred the election campaign, including an assault on a candidate associated with Jitanram Manjhi and a fatal shooting of a Jan Suraaj Party activist in Mokama.
Tejashwi Yadav is encountering difficulties in rallying support for his coalition partners. In the Gaura Bauram constituency of Darbhanga, Tejashwi found himself in a challenging position, attempting to persuade voters to support Santosh Sahni, the brother of VIP chief Mukesh Sahni, over the RJD’s Afzal Khan. Tejashwi conveyed that alliance compulsions necessitated RJD voters backing Sahni, assuring Khan of future respect.
This situation highlights Tejashwi’s strategic dilemma: he must carefully manage relations with Muslim voters by not harshly criticizing Afzal Khan, while simultaneously ensuring the support of the Mallah community by not alienating them. His approach has been to seek a middle ground.
The RJD has expelled a considerable number of rebel candidates, and the Congress is also dealing with expelled members contesting independently. These internal conflicts, resulting in ‘friendly contests’ across multiple seats, have led to comparisons by PM Modi, likening the RJD-Congress alliance to ‘oil and water.’
Although Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav participated in joint rallies, their campaign messages diverge significantly. Tejashwi’s speeches do not target corporate figures like Adani and Ambani, he avoids personal attacks on PM Modi, and he does not echo Rahul’s ‘vote chori’ accusations. Furthermore, he did not defend Rahul’s controversial comments regarding Chhath Puja.
Tejashwi’s primary strategy involves portraying Amit Shah as an ‘outsider’ and appealing to a sense of Bihari identity and pride. His rallies attract substantial, enthusiastic crowds, indicating his central role in leading the Mahagathbandhan campaign. The recent killing in Mokama, which Tejashwi used to criticize the PM’s focus on outdated ‘jungle raj’ issues, serves as a stark reminder of the enduring presence of fear and violence in Bihar’s elections, although at a reduced scale compared to the 1990s.
The influence of powerful figures, or ‘bahubalis,’ persists in Bihar politics, even as their direct electoral participation has decreased, often replaced by family members. Caste remains the dominant factor in electoral calculations, with religion playing a significant role in the Seemanchal region. Concerns about Nitish Kumar’s health and the legacy of Tejashwi Yadav, marred by allegations of ‘jungle raj’ and corruption, are prominent issues. The emergence of Prashant Kishor and AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi adds unpredictability to the electoral outcome. Current indications suggest the Nitish-Modi alliance currently possesses an advantage.
