As Bihar gears up for the upcoming assembly elections, political parties are actively engaged in forming strategies. These strategies encompass caste-based considerations and alliance possibilities. Discussions regarding seat-sharing are underway. Meanwhile, there is speculation that Owaisi’s party, which secured five seats in the 2020 assembly elections, might join the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance).
AIMIM representatives have indicated their willingness to align with the Mahagathbandhan to counter the BJP and its allies. Akhtarul Imam, the AIMIM state president, initiated the proposal. However, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav responded by stating that no discussions had taken place on the matter. Subsequently, Owaisi revealed that his party had proposed an alliance but had not yet received a response.
Owaisi stated that a similar effort in 2020 did not succeed. His party later won five seats. Subsequently, Akhtarul Imam accused the RJD of poaching their MLAs, despite AIMIM’s support in the assembly.
He cited the goal of preventing the NDA from regaining power and said the alliance proposal was made proactively. The possibility of exploring a Third Front has also been raised, and contacts with various parties are ongoing.
The prospect of a Third Front has ignited speculation. There is a belief that AIMIM might replicate its 2020 approach by forming a new alliance with smaller parties. In 2020, Owaisi’s party formed the Grand Democratic Secular Front, which included Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, Mayawati’s BSP, Devendra Prasad Yadav’s SJD(D), Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, and Sanjay Singh Chauhan’s Janvadi Party (Socialist).
Akhtarul Imam is reportedly in communication with smaller parties. If AIMIM forms a Third Front, the RJD and Congress could potentially face the most significant losses.
RJD’s base in Bihar’s politics is centered around the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) equation. Owaisi’s actions could directly impact the RJD-Congress alliance in Muslim-dominated areas. Additionally, the entry of BSP could put RJD at risk in constituencies where Dalit and Muslim votes are crucial. In 2020, BSP won one seat, with Mohammad Zama Khan winning from Chainpur.
If AIMIM’s 5 seats are included, RJD lost 6 seats. Though some MLAs later changed parties, the election in Bihar’s Ramgarh seat had a close result. The current RJD MP Sudhakar Singh won by a narrow margin of 189 votes against BSP candidate Ambika Singh. Upendra Kushwaha is with the NDA, and Rajbhar is also allied with the NDA.
It’s evident that BSP and AIMIM are preparing to contest all seats separately. If they form an alliance, Congress’s Dalit politics and the RJD-Congress’s Muslim vote could be affected. Akash Anand, Mayawati’s nephew, is also campaigning for BSP in Bihar.
Owaisi intends to expand beyond Muslim politics by backing Hindu candidates. He has announced Rana Ranjit Singh as a candidate from the Dhaka seat. If AIMIM and RJD don’t unite, Tejashwi Yadav could face setbacks. Some think that Muslims may not want to risk it again, especially given how close RJD came to forming the government in the last election.
Tejashwi Yadav has strongly spoken about the Waqf issue. He is presented as a strong opposition face to defeat the NDA. The possibility of Muslim votes being wasted also looms in the minds of voters. The future remains uncertain.
