A new tariff war is brewing in the Indian telecom sector, potentially driven by Reliance Jio’s forthcoming IPO, expected in the first half of 2026. In anticipation of the IPO, both Jio and Airtel are expected to raise tariffs to boost profits and attract investor interest. Previously, the focus was on offering affordable plans; however, both Jio and Airtel have discontinued their cheapest plans recently. This strategy has had a direct effect on the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Airtel’s ARPU has reached Rs 250, while Jio’s ARPU is at Rs 208.8. Increasing tariffs is expected to improve Jio’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), thereby making the IPO more appealing. Jio has a user base exceeding 500 million. Airtel follows with 362.8 million users, while Vodafone Idea (Vi) has 197.7 million users. If Jio increases its tariffs, Airtel is likely to follow suit, which will enhance the earnings of both companies. Vi, however, might experience greater pressure. Analysts estimate Jio’s valuation at about $133 billion (approximately 11 lakh crore). The IPO could potentially generate around $3 billion for Jio. Some experts suggest that shareholders of Reliance Industries may not benefit significantly due to a holding company discount. Mobile data and calling plans are anticipated to become more expensive in the coming months, potentially leading to higher recharge expenses for mobile users. Jio and Airtel are likely to consolidate their positions, while Vi might face added difficulties. Jio’s IPO is poised to impact the stock market and the wallets of mobile users. Both Ambani and Mittal have prepared their strategies, but the real impact could be felt by the average mobile user.
